The climatic instabilities are causing falls and variations in the harvests and prices of the main grains and oilseeds in the region and the world. The aftermath has been intense droughtsas an effect of La Niña, for three consecutive years.
La Niña is now in a reversal with El Niño which, according to the FAO, this year and next year will cause extreme rainfall and even flooding in the United States, Argentina, Mexico, Paraguay and Uruguay.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDAThe report forecasts that in 2022-2023 "world trade will increase modestly, with higher exports for Ukraine, the European Union and South Africa, offsetting reductions in exports from Argentina and the United States.
Argentina's AACs would export 42% less
At Argentinaaccording to the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), the world's second largest agro-exporting hub, weather effects are expected to cause a drop in soybean, corn and wheat harvests. Agri-Food Chains (AFC) would suffer in the following areas 2023 a drop of 42% in its foreign sales compared to 2022. Argentine exports in 2023 would fall by at least 21.6% compared to the 2022 level..
As for the wheatthe USDA maintains that "lhe largest production forecasts and relatively free exports from the Black Sea." cause a drop in their world prices.
Last May's estimates of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) The Russian wheat quotations, $ 33 lower per tonne, contrast today with the Russian wheat quotations, $ 33 lower per tonne. The corresponding wheat Hard Red Winter (HRW) US exports fell by 1Q4Q20/t due to depreciation. As for the European UnionThe Canadian estimates were down by $ 14/t, given the supply from Eastern Europe. Canadian estimates also fell by $ 10/t and Australian estimates, $ 4/t.
A separate case is Argentina's quotations, which rose $28/t, while exportable supplies decreased.
The report of the USDA June announces that the production of corn from Mexico 2022/23 is estimated 1% lower than 2021/22.
Argentina's corn would fall in yield by 25%, and harvested area by 6% less than in 2022.
Brazil: records in corn and soybeans
At Brazil 2022/23 corn production is a record 132.0 million mt, 14% higher than the 2021/22 crop. For the USDA this record is for "late May rains for the southeastern states". (Paraná, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul)that broke the dry streak"..
Brazil also achieves a bumper crop of soybeans20% more than in 2021/22. USDA attributes this to "improved seed varieties, crop management practices and an exceptionally favorable climate.".
On the other hand, the Argentine soybean in 2022/23, according to the USDAwould produce 25.0 million tons. Compared to 2021/22, 43% less, with a 40% lower yield.
Uruguay, stable and expectant for rains
At UruguayAccording to the U.S. source, wheat production in 2023/24 is forecast to remain stable at 1.2 million mt. Exports will remain at 750,000 mt. Corn "will recover by more than 300% to 980,000 mt." after the historic drought. Rice will remain unchanged.
