The Chinese effect on the world export domino tournament continues to cause dominoes to fall. In its latest analysis, the portal Rosgan, created by the Rosario Stock Exchange and important Argentine livestock consignors, states that "Argentina has managed to position itself in the first half of the year as the only country in the region to increase its beef exports"..
But, it is a Pyrrhic triumph.
The market analysis, prepared by Maria Julia Aiassa for Rosgan, warns that Argentina's competitive advantage in export volume growth, "the adjustment variable ended up being the price"..
Argentina's emblematic beef was sold this semester at US$4274 per ton, compared to US$5900 in the same period of 2022.
It was not the same with the neighbors
Although "Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay have all fallen back in terms of volume shipped."Argentina's three Mercosur partners did not significantly reduce their sales prices with respect to the same semester of 2022.
Rosgan points out that Argentine exports recorded an improvement of almost 9 points between both semesters in terms of value per volume (327,200 versus 301,000 tons), "even with a market plagued by regulations and a highly disadvantageous exchange rate differential to operate in."The company's main objective is to promote the development of the sector, in a critical allusion to the Argentine government's interventionist policies for the sector.
For Rosgan, the increase in slaughterings caused by the drought throughout the region contributed to this greater supply, which forced producers to go out for a higher placement of beef.
The rest of Mercosur
Brazil "The company has registered a significant increase in production, which projects a strong growth in its exportable balance".Rosgan says, but notes that the disruption of sales to China that it suffered during the first quarter led it to lose positions in the first half of the year".". It is added that, "according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX), the total shipped from January to June reached 882.6 thousand tons, 5% less than what was shipped in the same period of 2022.".
According to Rosgan, the price of cattle has made Uruguay less competitive for export in recent months.
According to the Uruguayan National Meat Institute (INAC), the placement per ton was US$4409, 14% lower than 2022. The volume was 172,000 tons, 20% lower.
Paraguay's advantage
Paraguay, the only one of the four Mercosur members that does not have trade relations with China, suffered a minor decrease of only 10% in the trade value of its 158,000 tons exported in 2023.
Regarding the future of the Argentinean meat market, Rosgan comments in its analysis, ".it will be crucial to closely monitor the evolution of demand, especially in the Chinese market because of its relevance for our country".. The same source specifies: "It is clear that, on the supply side, Brazil will be a strong competitor in this last part of the year and will push hard to place its exportable balance in tandem with Australia, another important supplier that reappears with weight in the international market"..
